What developments are likely by 2007?

Futurist David Greenop presented one of our workshops with some insights into the way that personal and home-based communication technologies are likely to develop by 2007. He concluded:

Social trends of more 'individualistic' lifestyles, flexible working and dispersed social networks will provide the context for new technology.
Information and communication will be available through a wider range of fixed and mobile devices that can be networked together.
We can expect to see 'smart homes', 'media rich homes' and 'dumb homes', depending upon people's preferences and what they can afford.

The Internet will change to become many networks usually accessed through portals designed around work, the home and the individual.

He set his vision of personal networks, smart and dumb homes in the context of social as well as technology trends, because these will inform development and marketing by both private and public organisations. His presentation does not represent desirable or undesirable scenarios for the future, but offers a reflection of the way that the technology industry sees things developing. A fuller version is available on our website.

Social and technology trends

On the social front, David envisages a population with a higher proportion of older people, increased wealth but a continuing and perhaps growing gap between rich and poor.

People are likely to spend more time in education. They may work for many different employers across a spectrum of different job types, perhaps on a casual or contractual basis. There will be greater opportunity for some - and less security.
On current trends, people will be more individualistic, confident to assert their personal needs, and less involved in communal activities. There will be less interest in ideologies, and people will increasingly see government as principally a deliverer of public services.
More people will be in relationships outside marriage, and networks of friends may replace the importance of the family for many. More people live alone. Better transport and communication lead to more dispersed social networks.

Technology trends over the next five years will be mainly a reflection of products already in production or in the labs - so they are not particularly speculative.

For those that can afford it there will be lots more communication devices, greater and more flexible connectivity, intelligent agents to help us find content, and an increased tailoring of technology to our personal needs and situations.
In addition to abundant personal and hand-held computers, mobile phones and set-top boxes, smart devices will make their way into a host of personal equipment, from cars to one-off disposables. Many will be embedded into the everyday objects we encounter in the physical world around us.
There will be localised broadband networks at work, around our homes, at schools and in shops, as well as in public places. There will be less distinction between wired and wireless network infrastructures.
Content will be available through a range of different devices, presented in different formats, raising complex issues of copyright and control. Online artificial entities will appear as personal helpers, roaming agents, intelligent knowledge-based systems and domestic robots. 'With the addition of personalities and avatar representations, they can be expected to provide individuals with personal friendship and support,' says David, perhaps not tongue in cheek, and thinking of the singles living alone with dispersed networks of friends.
Personal communication and information systems could adapt to people's different life situations and different roles, responding to what you are doing, who you are with and where you are. David says: 'Devices housed physically on the individual will create a personal area network or 'personal bubbleÓ. This bubble could become 'awareÓ of its owner's individuality, its needs and preferences, and negotiate on its owner's behalf with the outside world.'

The home in 2007

David Greenop presented three possible types of home, reflecting different lifestyles, wealth and use of technologies.

Basing our picture of the future on trends outlined earlier, residents will potentially have a wide variety of electronic devices that can be networked together, and a wide choice of communication channels into their home. Many homes will have a number of suppliers. Mobile devices will be able to switch between being in the home network or outside it. We will be able to buy content and applications 'boxed' or over the Net. Commercial Internet portals will provide home information and communication gateways that can be integrated into other networks such as a mobile or work network. Most entertainment channels will be interactive irrespective of how they are supplied.

Some people will want - and be able to afford - all the latest kit. Others may invest in technology - but focus on entertainment rather than sophisticated communication. Another group may not be able to afford more than the basics, or may be happy with things much as they are today. David called the different types of homes created 'smart homes', 'media rich homes' and 'dumb homes'.

The smart home is characterised by:

high degree of home automation via a localised cable or wireless network and controlled by a home server
abundance of personal electronic devices networked together to share information and run applications across different areas of the home
connection to the outside world by an 'always on' broadband communication channel
variety of media feeds into the home, i.e. terrestrial, satellite and cable
smart places for activities like family entertainment and teleworking
acting as a communications and processing hub for residents when they are away from the home.

The media rich home is characterised by:

little or no automation
integrated home entertainment, computing and communication centre based upon either a set-top box or proprietary entertainment centre
most applications provided on pay-per-use basis through a home portal
some electronic devices networked when necessary via this centre using wireless or cables
many personal devices not networked
broadband connection to the outside world provided as part of a media package.

The dumb home is characterised by:

no automation
assortment of personal electronic devices but not networked together
communication via telephone and Internet via dial-up modem
entertainment primarily focused on free-to-air TV channels and rented material.

People and their needs

David concluded his presentation with three fictionalised personal stories from 2007, developed for a European research project. You can find 'The Caring Butler', 'My Survival Guide', and 'Mother Taken Ill' on our website.

The context for these stories was strong emphasis on the individual as the focus of networking. Rather than simply connecting to 'the Internet' we will be able to develop and be members of a wide range of different networks. These networks will be designed to make our life easier, keep in touch and provide security and trusted services, and to serve broadly six categories or degrees of interaction. This will be our information and communication ecology.

personal: close bonds with family and friends
associational: relationships with people we encounter regularly - friends, neighbours, work colleagues, shopkeepers - where our interaction usually derives from particular roles or circumstances
organisational: interactions with organisations rather than particular individuals
casual: interactions between unconnected persons or groups, often the stuff of lasting acquaintance
observational: interactions at a distance, sometimes between observed and anonymous observer
virtual: interactions with artificial entities. In the future, contacts with virtual agents, artificial guides, home-helpers and medical assistants may produce significant relationships.

The technology is expected to develop in two distinct communication sectors - mobile and fixed networks. By 2007 the cost of third generation mobile handsets will have decreased. Many people will use them for both business and personal use, including accessing media content and the web. The big drawback with mobile will be the cost and availability of broadband radio bandwidth and consequently the mobile will be slower than fixed network access at home. However for the mobile the most popular application will be the new universal messaging services by which people will be able to send and receive text, voice and video images.

Information and communication ecology

Human relationships are seen as a key factor in understanding lifestyle technology use:

Personal: close bonds with family and friends
Associational: relationships with people we encounter
Organisational: interactions with organisations rather than particular individuals
Casual: interations between unconnected persons or groups, often the stuff of lasting acquaintance
Observational: interactions at a distance, sometimes between observed and anonymous observer
Virtual: interactions with artificial entities which are the natural mediator for relations with virtual others

For many people, particularly the young and those away from their home or office, the mobile will be their prime communication device.

David concluded:

The Internet that we know today is changing. Whilst the old World Wide Web will not totally disappear there will appear many more sub-webs that are constructed for specific purposes and people. Many of these webs or closed networks are to protect commercial information and applications, but many are there to act as gateways or portals through which services can be delivered securely and reliably to customers.

Looking to the future it is highly likely that the personal portal will for some people develop into a network in its own right. This is called a Personal Net and puts people on an equal level with business networks. In the timeframe we are looking at these Personal Nets will be starting to appear.

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